download Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction epub BY Philip E. Tetlock – Kindle & PDF

Philip E. Tetlock ↠ 3 download

D And can this talent be taught   In Superforecasting Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people including a Brooklyn filmmaker a retired pipe installer and a former ballroom dancer who set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They’ve beaten other benchmarks competitors and prediction markets They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters   In this groundbreaking and accessible book Tetlock and. Philip E Tetlock feels a bit too polite Sometimes it seems he is excusing wrong predictions by finding weasel words in them or interpreting them kindly instead of using the intended assertionJust say Thomas Friedman is a bad forecasterInstead of reading this book I recommend reading the books he referencesThinking Fast and Slow The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable and The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don tThis books feels like a superficial summary of the afore mentioned books and an attempt to combine themThe central lessons of Superforecasting can be distilled into a handful of directives Base predictions on data and logic and try to eliminate personal bias Keep track of records so that you know how accurate you and others are Think in terms of probabilities and recognize that everything is uncertain Unpack a uestion into its component parts distinguishing between what is known and unknown and scrutinizing your assumptions New York Times review

read & download Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction

A  New York Times BestsellerAn  Economist Best Book of 2015The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's  Thinking Fast and Slow Jason Zweig  The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future whether buying stocks crafting policy launching a new product or simply planning the week’s meals Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance However an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so goo. 5 What a great book It will definitely appeal to the fans of Thinking Fast and Slow Predictably Irrational The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions and The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThought provoking and full of very perceptive observations But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written This is an example of non fiction at its best There is definitely research and background science overview but each chapter is a proper story as well Philip E Tetlock andor his co author not sure who should take the credit are superb storytellers It was not only insightful but genuinely enjoyable to read this bookI usually read several books simultaneously one or two non fiction titles and a bunch of fiction stories But last week Superforecasting monopolised my reading time And it is particularly telling how well it managed to trample competition from its fiction rivals It goes straight to my absolute best non fiction shelf I recommend it strongly to all curious about the psychology of decision making and an ability of our mind to cope the uncertainty

read Ù eBook or Kindle ePUB ↠ Philip E. Tetlock

Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decision makers from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin they show that good forecasting doesn’t reuire powerful computers or arcane methods It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources thinking probabilistically working in teams keeping score and being willing to admit error and change course Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future whether in business finance politics international affairs or daily life and is destined to become a modern classi. I m giving this a 4 even though I didn t complete it It s very well written and structured but I just decided half way through that the subject wasn t for meSome exceptional real world examples though


10 thoughts on “Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction

  1. says:

    During the first hundred pages I was sure to give the book a perfect score It totally caught my attention and made me want and The book made me feel like it had been written for me someone that don't know much about predictions and forecasts but feels like he could be good at itThen after the half of the book you get a little bored because it always come back to the same thing Use number to make your predictions in a wel

  2. says:

    Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania He is a co leader of the Good Judgment Project a long term forecasting study It is a fascinating project whose purpose is to improve the accuracy of forecasts You can learn about the project on theGood Judgment website In this book you can learn t

  3. says:

    5⭐️ What a great book It will definitely appeal to the fans of Thinking Fast and Slow Predictably Irrational The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions and The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThought provoking and full of very perceptive observations But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written This is an example of non fiction at its best There is definitely research and

  4. says:

    When it comes to forecasting most pundits and professionals do little better than chimps with dartboards according to Phillip Tetlock who ought to know because he has spent a good deal of his life keeping track Tetlock has partnered with Dan Gardner an excellent science journalist to write this engaging book about the 2 percent of f

  5. says:

    Philip E Tetlock feels a bit too polite Sometimes it seems he is excusing wrong predictions by finding weasel words in them or interpreting them kindly instead of using the intended assertionJust say Thomas Friedman is a bad forecasterInstead of reading this book I recommend reading the books he referencesThinking Fast and Slow The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable and The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But

  6. says:

    This book features some interesting trivia about Super forecasters but when it comes to explaining evidence based practice it was Super disappointing It starts off well with a discussion of Archie Cochrane and evidence based medicine EBM but then it bizarrely ignores the core concepts of EBM In EBM you look up what works and then use that info to help people instead of killing them But when Tetlock talks about social p

  7. says:

    This book was solid though perhaps not uite as good as I hopedexpected It was interesting reading full of interesting stories and examples The author doesn't prescribe a particular method superforecasting it appears is about a toolbox or set of guidelines that must be used and adapted based on the particular circumstances As a result at tim

  8. says:

    Harry Truman famously said Give me a one handed economist All my economics say ''On the one hand? on the other''P

  9. says:

    I'm giving this a 4 even though I didn't complete it It's very well written and structured but I just decided half way through that the subject wasn't for meSome exceptional real world examples though

  10. says:

    I usually rank my favorite books on a line between „extremely readable“ and „ very useful“ This one is probably among my Top 3 most useful books ever The other two are Kahneman's “Thinking Fast and Slow” and Taleb's “Black Swan” You don't have to agree on everything with the author but you still will get dozens of tr

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *